Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 17 March

Concern over the spread of COVID-19 remains volatile, so does business optimism.

Employment prospects have consistently improved since July; many employees want a flexible return to offices.

5.6%

The OECD projects global economic growth at 5.6% for 2021.

6.6%

According to EuroStat, EU27 and Eurozone area contracted by 6.2% and 6.6% respectively in 2020.

Impact of Covid-19 on employment outlook

- SECTOR IMPACT: FOOD -

Latest update: 3 March

sales impact

7.4%

Second quarter 2020 sales increased 7.4% versus the year-ago period.

5.7%

Second quarter hit by global lockdown with sales down 5.7% on a like-for-like basis.

value chain impact (mid-term)

Consumer goods companies are likely to be forced to analyse their sourcing strategies.

As restaurants begin to open with social distancing measures demand will increase but lower than previous years.

As events, schools, and companies begin to get back to normal, catering service providers revenues will increase.

Social distancing measures will decrease restaurant capacity, negatively impacting revenue.

Likely increased uptake of online delivery.

Key Food developments

Food will see 1.2% value growth in 2021 compared with baseline forecasts and will continue to exceed forecast expectations to 2023.

Long-life products including canned, dried, and frozen foods are driving growth, while ‘non-essentials such as ice cream and savoury & deli foods will continue to see decline in 2021 compared with baseline predictions.

Just over a third (34%) of global consumers say they will purchase take-out meals from restaurants more often than before, rising to 44% among millennials. Consumers remain risk-averse, which is accelerating the adoption of delivery services. However, delivery services remain impacted by reduced consumer spending overall.

Fast food chains will decline in 2021 vs the baseline forecast by 8%, representing $65.2bn value loss. In 2023, the gap between the baseline and slowdown forecasts will widen to -9.8%, potentially driven by heightened health consciousness.

08/03/2021 09:08:35