Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 14 April

The global economy is forecasted to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022.

India is projected 12.5% growth in 2021, ahead of China's forecasted 8.6%, according to the IMF.

Positive GDP growth is forecast in all countries; the 2021 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently 6%.

6.7%

The unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.7% in Feb 2021, marginally down from 6.8% in Jan 2021.

Impact of Covid-19 on employment outlook

- SECTOR IMPACT: FOOD -

Latest update: 6 May

sales impact

7.4%

Second quarter 2020 sales increased 7.4% versus the year-ago period.

5.7%

Second quarter hit by global lockdown with sales down 5.7% on a like-for-like basis.

value chain impact (mid-term)

Consumer goods companies are likely to be forced to analyse their sourcing strategies.

As restaurants begin to open with social distancing measures demand will increase but lower than in previous years.

As events, schools, and companies begin to get back to normal, catering service providers revenues will increase.

Social distancing measures will decrease restaurant capacity, negatively impacting revenue.

Online deliveries are likely to keep growing in popularity.

Key Food developments

Limited foodservice operations and increased time spent within the home are driving the 3.4% value growth predicted for the food sector in 2021.

Long-life products including canned, dried, and frozen foods will benefit most, in part attributable to the scratch-cooking trend born out of the pandemic.

Ice cream and savoury & deli snacks saw a marginal decline in 2020, but are anticipated to bounce back this year as some consumers may begin to treat themselves to ‘non-essentials’.

Fast food chains will see 20.0% value growth in 2021 and are anticipated to recoup 2019 pre-pandemic values in 2023.

Health-consciousness remains high, highlighting opportunities for players offering healthy menu items, while price consciousness will also play a role in the recovery of the category.

09/29/2021 20:02:16