Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 18 November

After weeks of gradual decline, GDP estimates for many countries have levelled off.

Polls show that employment prospects have consistently improved since July.

-4.4%

The IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.

-10.3%

The IMF has downgraded India’s growth forecast for fiscal year ending March 2021 to -10.3% in its October forecast.

Impact of Covid-19 on employment outlook

- SECTOR IMPACT: FOOD -

Latest update: 4 November

employment impact

900

Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan recently offered voluntary redundancy to 900 of its employees.

1,300

PizzaExpress is set to axe 1,300 additional jobs in the UK, two months after the chain cut its workforce by 1,100 staff members.

Revenue predictions

Food will see a 3% value growth in 2020 compared with baseline forecasts. This is driven by long-life products including canned and frozen foods. In contrast, ‘non-essentials’ such as ice cream, as well as savoury & deli foods, and fish & seafood have seen a decline in 2020 compared with baseline predictions.

The restaurant channel will see the largest decline in value terms with
a predicted $654.4bn value loss in 2020 vs the baseline forecast, equivalent to 26.5%. This gap between the baseline and the slowdown
forecast will narrow slightly to -9.6% in 2023.

Key Food developments

Nestlé USA acquired prepared meals supplier, Freshly, a provider of fresh, chef-cooked meals to consumers across the US. This move recognizes the consumer embrace of e-commerce and leverages the direct-to-consumer model to address needs.

The General Mills Foundation recently announced an additional $4m of funds for non-profit organizations working to alleviate global food insecurity.

A portion of full-service restaurants are operating through delivery services during the outbreak, though this outlet type will still see 28.5% decline in 2020 vs the baseline forecast, representing $410bn value loss.

Fast food chains will decline in 2020 vs the baseline forecast by 23.5%, representing $190.9bn value loss. The gap between the “slowdown” forecast and the baseline forecast will improve slightly to -12.1% in 2023.

01/08/2021 15:43:31